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Nasrat Adamo1, Nadhir Al-Ansari1, Jan Laue1, Sven Knutsson1 and Varoujan Sissakian2


1. Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Lulea University of Technology, 97187, Lulea, Sweden;
2. Department of Geology, University of Kurdistan, Hewler, Iraq


Gradual shift has been observed lately of dam safety procedures from the conventional technical based towards a wider scope of risk management procedure based on risk analysis. The new approach considers the likelihood level of occurrence of a multitude of hazards and the magnitude of the resulting possible consequences in case of failure using rational cause and effect arguments. Most dam owners are shifting towards the use of the new risk based procedures; and even governments themselves are moving towards formalizing the new trend. Legislations in the United States were promulgated [1] after serious dam failures and the adoption of stringent levels of scrutiny led such federal dam owners to pioneer in this field and in developing the concepts and methods required. The corner stone in risk analysis is the definition of the potential modes that may lead to failure and assessment of the likelihood levels of their occurrence and possible category of the consequences which, after thorough evaluation, will shape the decision making. This type of analysis was applied to Mosul Dam as a case study and resulted in definite recommendations.


Risk analysis, risk management, Mosul Dam, Iraq.

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