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Article
Author(s)

Nahlah Abbas1, Saleh A. Wasimi1 and Nadhir Al-Ansari2

Affiliation(s)

1. School of Engineering and Technology, Central Queensland University, Melbourne 3000, Australia
2. Geotechnical Engineering, Lulea University of Technology, Lulea 971 87, Sweden

ABSTRACT

Greater Zab is the largest tributary of the Tigris River in Iraq where the catchment area is currently being plagued by water scarcity and pollution problems. Contemporary studies have revealed that blue and green waters of the basin have been manifesting increasing variability contributing to more severe droughts and floods apparently due to climate change. In order to gain greater appreciation of the impacts of climate change on water resources in the study area in near and distant future, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has been used. The model is first tested for its suitability in capturing the basin characteristics, and then, forecasts from six GCMs (general circulation models) with about half-a-century lead time to 2046~2064 and one-century lead time to 2080~2100 are incorporated to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources under three emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. The results showed worsening water resources regime into the future.

KEYWORDS

Greater Zab, SWAT, sensitivity, blue water, green water.

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